Decision Support

Decision Making is a basic operation in all forms of business. Real World Decision Making is often complex and requires a deep understanding of the domain under consideration. Further, decisions often have to be taken in an uncertain environment where either the real state of the world is unknown or the effect of decisions cannot exactly be determined. Providing useful decision support requires to understand the nature of decision making and possible mechanisms and strategies to deal with complexity and uncertainty in a given situation. This module is concerned with state of the art models and methods for modeling and analyzing complex decision situations.

Using the metaphor of an intelligent agent that has to determine its actions in a complex environment, we will first investigate decision problems and later take a closer look at probabilistic graphical models as the dominant method for reasoning under uncertainty. Further, we will introduce the basics of decision making when integrating utility.

More precisely, the Module is based on the Textbook: Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach by Stuart Russell and Peter Norvig and will cover the following chapters:

• Intelligent Agents
• Logical Decision Making
• Quantifying Uncertainty
• Probabilistic Reasoning
• Making Simple Decisions
• Game Theory and Mechanism Design

In this module, Students will acquire basic knowledge of the techniques, opportunities and applications of decision theory. Successful participants will be able to identify opportunities for decision support in an enterprise environment, select and apply appropriate techniques and interpret the results.